Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 83

   Mesoscale Discussion 0083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

   Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far Northwest Arkansas...Far Southwest
   Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 120725Z - 121330Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to develop across parts of
   Oklahoma overnight, with precipitation rates locally exceeding 0.10
   inches per hour.

   DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
   imagery near the Four Corners. This feature will move quickly
   eastward across the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains
   late tonight into the early morning hours. Large-scale ascent ahead
   of the shortwave will increase across the southern Plains, which
   will aid the expansion and intensification of precipitation that is
   already ongoing. At the surface, cold air advection is occurring
   over much of the southern Plains. Surface temperatures are currently
   below freezing in most of western and northern Oklahoma into parts
   of central Oklahoma. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop over
   the next few hours, as an area with heavier precipitation moves
   east-northeastward across Oklahoma. 

   RAP forecast soundings along this corridor late tonight have a warm
   layer of +2 to +4 C between 700 and 800 mb. With sub-freezing
   surface temperatures, this will result in freezing rain over much of
   Oklahoma. Freezing rain rates are expected to locally exceed 0.10
   inches per hour within the heavier convective showers. Short-term
   model forecast suggest that the precipitation will eventually move
   into parts of the western Ozarks near or after daybreak, where
   precipitation may change over to moderate snow, with the development
   of heavy snow possible.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35039600 34529795 34419886 34419939 34489971 34729995
               35120007 35619997 36049962 36449896 36899706 37319469
               37319385 37149347 36759323 36279333 35949376 35659437
               35039600