US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 811

   Mesoscale Discussion 0811
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Areas affected...coastal parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

   Valid 170721Z - 170815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252

   SUMMARY...Severe threat has moved primarily offshore, with inland
   potential limited largely to coastal counties.  As such, downstream
   WW is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an overall, gradual decrease in
   organization of the bowing MCS which has now fully cleared far
   southeastern Louisiana, such that the bulk of the strongest
   convection is now offshore.

   Instability -- as indicated by RAP-based objective analysis --
   remains essentially non-existent inland, with the gradient lying
   across coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.  With
   this expected to remain the case over the next few hours, it appears
   unlikely that any substantial increase in risk will occur farther
   inland.  As such, with threat so confined areally, downstream WW
   issuance -- beyond the scheduled 17/08Z expiration of Tornado Watch
   252 -- is not anticipated.

   ..Goss.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29248863 29858827 30528822 30678756 30708660 30498561
               28988525 29048819 29248863 

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