Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 807

   Mesoscale Discussion 0807
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into central West
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

   Valid 202055Z - 202230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts continues across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 236.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts several ongoing
   thunderstorm clusters from southern Kentucky northeastward into
   western/central West Virginia, with a couple of recent 1" hail
   reports noted north of Charleston, West Virginia. Continued diurnal
   heating has supported temperatures warming well into the 80s F
   across the region, which is subsequently contributing to 1000-1500
   J/kg MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 8 C/km per
   latest objective analysis) and dewpoint depressions of 20-25 F
   evident in recent surface observations continue to promote at least
   some potential for damaging wind gusts with ongoing thunderstorms.
   Modest effective shear (generally less than 30 kts) and weak
   mid-level lapse rates will largely temper the threat for large hail,
   but isolated small to marginally severe hail remains possible with
   the most robust cores. Expectation is for ongoing storms to persist
   into this evening before gradually dissipating owing to low-level
   nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

   ..Chalmers.. 05/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   36968281 36698350 36698380 36948391 37278383 37618341
               38018272 38448196 38548165 38598115 38548078 38368061
               38198061 37888088 37728114 37278204 36968281 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN