Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 807

   Mesoscale Discussion 0807
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 162231Z - 170030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to gradually increase across the
   lower MS Valley this evening. There is some consideration for a new
   watch across this region later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection is focused across
   the lower MS Valley early this evening. An expansive MCS has evolved
   across east TX/northern LA and the leading edge of this activity is
   slowly sagging south, but spreading/developing east of ww249. Later
   this evening, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the
   northwestern Gulf Basin into LA, and this will encourage convective
   overturning of a very moist/buoyant air mass south of the MCS.
   Marginally severe hail is possible with this activity but damaging
   winds may be the primary risk, especially if line segments are able
   to evolve.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31249146 30218916 29088985 30129182 31249146