Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 795

   Mesoscale Discussion 0795
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152050Z - 152145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Watch possible this afternoon as large hail and damaging
   wind threat increases.

   DISCUSSION...A deepening cumulus field is observed on visible
   satellite across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma,
   as strong daytime heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the
   mid 80s. Thunderstorm development is expected in the next couple of
   hours along the edge of eroding mid-level capping near the OK/KS
   border ahead of the surface front. Given MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg,
   30-40 kts of deep layer shear, and elongated straight hodographs,
   initial development will favor discrete supercells capable of very
   large hail and damaging wind. Clustering of cells may occur through
   mergers from splitting supercells and along developing outflow into
   the evening, leading to increased potential in the damaging wind
   threat into the evening. A watch may be needed in the next hour.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36609732 37809658 38219654 38509661 38789757 38749800
               38539871 37909948 36949981 36879986 34779998 34539923
               34949755 36609732