Mesoscale Discussion 0788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Areas affected...Parts of north/central FL into extreme southeast GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 150545Z - 150745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible
overnight, with some threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing early this morning across
parts of north FL, in the vicinity of a diffuse low-level baroclinic
zone and in the immediate wake of an MCV that has just moved
offshore of northeast FL. While there has been some cooling through
the evening, the environment sampled by the 00Z TBW sounding largely
remains in place across parts of central/northern FL, with moderate
MLCAPE and deep-layer shear supporting a conditionally favorable
environment for organized convection, including the potential for
supercells.
The evolution of convection remains somewhat uncertain across the FL
Peninsula overnight, but in general, an increase in storm coverage
is expected with time. Initial development may continue to be
focused across the northern FL, in closer proximity to the primary
baroclinic zone, with some increase possible toward central FL by
later this morning. Large hail and locally damaging wind will be
possible, if any more organized cells/clusters can be sustained.
Also, while there will be some lingering low-level stability
overnight, a tornado cannot be ruled out if a stronger supercell can
persist, especially in areas where richer low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the mid 70s F) is in place. The need for short-term
watch issuance is uncertain, but will become increasingly possible
with time overnight.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/15/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 27958272 28258303 29768355 30348303 30818188 30688135
30418130 29818096 29698091 29028065 28418078 28418086
27958272