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Mesoscale Discussion 782 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle Tennessee...far northern Mississippi...and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141744Z - 141845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over the next 1-3 hours across portions of Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama. A few severe thunderstorms are expected with a localized threat of damaging winds near 60 mph and occasional large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. DISCUSSION...A broken line of scattered thunderstorms has developed along a surface trough/weak cold front this afternoon from far northwest MS through portions of western TN. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates stratus is beginning to mix out downstream of an approaching mid to upper level vorticity maximum, currently located over northwest MS. As this feature continues to progress eastward, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop. Dewpoints in the mid 60s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s under marginal mid level lapse rates are currently yielding around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE under effective deep layer shear near 30 kt. A slight improvement to the thermodynamic environment is expected through this afternoon as destabilization continues, steeper lapse rates slowly advect northeastward, and cooler temperatures aloft move overhead. This may be especially true within pockets of clearing. Multicells with clusters, and perhaps some bowing segments, will be possible in addition to a few supercells more likely later in the afternoon. Localized damaging wind gusts near 60 mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter may accompany the more robust updrafts. Conditions will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. ..Barnes/Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 34269063 34579029 34769009 35038977 35158899 35658867 36328833 36698810 36878719 36658634 36598586 36228572 35818577 35168579 34778580 34558615 34408654 34138735 34098876 34129000 34269063 |
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