Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141430Z - 141630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should approach the Tampa metro
and vicinity around 15-16Z (11 AM - Noon EDT), while posing a threat
for mainly damaging winds. New watch issuance is possible to address
this potential.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing
this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent forward motion
of this activity suggests it should approach the FL Gulf Coast by
15-16Z. The 12Z sounding from TBW shows relatively cool mid-level
temperatures for FL (-10 C at 500 mb), along with steepened lapse
rates associated with an EML above 700 mb. But, there is still a
residual cap noted between 800-700 mb, which may tend to limit
updraft intensity over land in the short term. Recent surface
observations and visible satellite imagery also show strong
thunderstorms have developed along trailing outflow from earlier
convection across the north-central FL Peninsula. As robust daytime
heating of a very moist low-level airmass continues along/south of
this boundary, lingering MLCIN should gradually erode. Around
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will conditionally support intense
updrafts, with sufficiently strong mid-level westerly flow and
related deep-layer shear also fostering organized convection.
Thunderstorm evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat
unclear, as recent IR satellite trends show warming cloud tops with
the eastern Gulf convection. There is still some chance that strong
to severe thunderstorms consolidate along the outflow boundary over
the next couple of hours, and continue spreading eastward across the
central FL Peninsula this afternoon. If this scenario materializes,
then scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph would likely be the
main threat as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. A brief
tornado or two may also occur, although low-level flow has had a
tendency to veer to southwesterly this morning per latest VWPs from
KTBW, which has reduced 0-1 km SRH. Marginally severe hail also
appears possible with the more robust updrafts. It remains unclear
whether a new watch will be needed, but observational trends will be
closely monitored.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28838244 29328173 29398092 27968019 27428130 27288265
27768309 28428309 28838244