Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 780

   Mesoscale Discussion 0780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0854 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Kansas...northwest Missouri...southern Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 225...227...

   Valid 190154Z - 190500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 225, 227 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe winds are likely along the length of an extensive
   squall line extending from central Iowa across western Missouri and
   into south-central/eastern Kansas. Isolated/brief tornadoes may
   still occur from eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have largely consolidated into a squall line
   this evening, with various bowing segments with the line. One such
   segment is evident over northeast KS, with another moving across
   northern MO. The nearly north-south orientation of these segments is
   more favorable for significant wind damage as the leading outflow
   remains in balance/closer to the storms.

   The most favorable combination of low-level shear and instability
   currently extends from eastern KS into western MO, just ahead of the
   squall line and beneath the 55 kt low-level jet. The EAX VWP
   indicates 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH which may support periodic QLCS
   tornado potential.

   Farther southwest into south-central KS, echoes are training slowly,
   with robust cores producing hail at times. Measured severe gusts
   over 50 kt have occurred here as well, and these storms should
   maintain strength as the low-level jet persists directly in from the
   south.

   ..Jewell.. 05/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39719315 38779344 38219410 37559585 37379804 37459838
               37609834 38089698 38219662 38559603 39179554 39819481
               40269471 40599437 40779427 41129370 41599333 41959315
               42249265 42229242 41949226 40759250 39719315 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN