Mesoscale Discussion 0780 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 241... Valid 141243Z - 141415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across north Florida could pose a threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. A storm cluster could move into parts of central/north Florida later this morning, which would also pose some severe risk. DISCUSSION...Generally disorganized storms are ongoing this morning across north FL. Despite moderate buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as noted in the 12Z JAX sounding), these storms have struggled to mature, potentially due to generally modest large-scale ascent and rather warm temperatures aloft. Some diurnal heating is underway to the east and south of these storms, which will aid in further destabilization and may aid in the development of a couple stronger cells or clusters through mid morning, which would pose a threat for damaging wind and a tornado. Farther west, a storm cluster is moving rather quickly eastward across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With a rather favorable downstream environment, there is some potential for this cluster to propagate along an outflow-reinforced surface front and potentially reach west-central FL later this morning, with a renewed threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. However, with some residual capping noted on the 12Z TBW sounding, the longevity of this cluster remains somewhat uncertain. Depending on how this cluster evolves as it approaches the coast, there is some potential for new WW issuance later this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28278350 28898289 29838232 30238210 30528189 30678161 30478118 29728091 28918074 27648102 27248137 27078220 27188271 27648302 28278350