US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 780

   Mesoscale Discussion 0780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...

   Valid 141243Z - 141415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across north Florida could pose a threat
   for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. A storm cluster
   could move into parts of central/north Florida later this morning,
   which would also pose some severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Generally disorganized storms are ongoing this morning
   across north FL. Despite moderate buoyancy and favorable low-level
   and deep-layer shear (as noted in the 12Z JAX sounding), these
   storms have struggled to mature, potentially due to generally modest
   large-scale ascent and rather warm temperatures aloft. Some diurnal
   heating is underway to the east and south of these storms, which
   will aid in further destabilization and may aid in the development
   of a couple stronger cells or clusters through mid morning, which
   would pose a threat for damaging wind and a tornado. 

   Farther west, a storm cluster is moving rather quickly eastward
   across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With a rather favorable
   downstream environment, there is some potential for this cluster to
   propagate along an outflow-reinforced surface front and potentially
   reach west-central FL later this morning, with a renewed threat for
   damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. However, with some
   residual capping noted on the 12Z TBW sounding, the longevity of
   this cluster remains somewhat uncertain. Depending on how this
   cluster evolves as it approaches the coast, there is some potential
   for new WW issuance later this morning.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28278350 28898289 29838232 30238210 30528189 30678161
               30478118 29728091 28918074 27648102 27248137 27078220
               27188271 27648302 28278350 

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