Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 775

   Mesoscale Discussion 0775
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239...

   Valid 140125Z - 140330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east along the central Gulf Coast
   this evening. Damaging winds are the primary risk.

   DISCUSSION...Well-organized MCS has matured along the central Gulf
   Coast early this evening. MCV appears to be embedded within the
   larger precip shield near the LA/MS border south of Natchez.
   Early-day thunderstorm complex that spread along the northeast Gulf
   Coast has advanced into the northern FL Peninsula and weakened, but
   trailing outflow and rain-cooled boundary layer has stabilized much
   of the FL Panhandle into southern AL. As the leading edge of the MCS
   surges east into this air mass there should be some propensity for
   weakening as it encounters a less favorable environment. Until then,
   damaging winds can be expected with the surging squall line.

   Given the expected weakening, current thinking is a new watch may
   not be warranted.

   ..Darrow.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31129258 30778841 28898841 29249260 31129258