Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 766

   Mesoscale Discussion 0766
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

   Valid 131645Z - 131815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing
   supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing
   concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a
   bowing cluster.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San
   Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present
   (4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt,
   a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep
   mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO
   will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very
   large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north
   of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft
   interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode
   observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations
   are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing
   cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A
   greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist
   once this mode transition occurs.

   ..Gleason.. 05/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29369992 29849930 29949802 29829692 29259685 28799707
               28559734 28679902 28679989 28990016 29369992