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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 763

Mesoscale Discussion 763
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0763
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 131333Z - 131530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail and damaging winds should
   continue to increase this morning. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...The 12Z sounding from DRT shows rich low-level moisture
   beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, with resulting MUCAPE
   approaching 4000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will
   easily support supercell structures, and multiple thunderstorms have
   already developed near Eagle Pass TX with a weak mid-level
   perturbation ejecting from northern Mexico across TX. Current
   expectations are for this ongoing activity to gradually spread
   eastward across south-central TX this morning, while posing a threat
   for very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) with any
   sustained supercells. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may
   also occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with filtered
   daytime heating. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be
   needed to address the increasing threat for very large hail this

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/13/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29300086 29780014 29999847 29919717 29199689 28559715
               28289844 28210009 28390044 28840081 29300086 

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