US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 762

Mesoscale Discussion

   Mesoscale Discussion 0762
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southern Mississippi...Southern
   Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234...

   Valid 131151Z - 131345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234

   SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be
   possible this morning from far southern Mississippi into southern
   Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Mobile, AL
   shows a cluster of thunderstorms over southern Mississippi and
   southern Alabama, with a couple embedded strong storms. This
   convection is located along a northwest-to-southeast gradient of
   instability, and appears to be elevated in nature. However, forecast
   soundings across the western Florida Panhandle have MUCAPE around
   1000 J/kg, with effective shear near 60 knots and 0-3 storm-relative
   helicity just above 200 m2/s2. This should support a wind-damage
   threat, and perhaps a potential for a brief tornado, if the cells
   can become more surface-based. The threat would be the greatest with
   cells that can move more southeastward into the stronger instability
   near the coast.

   ..Broyles.. 05/13/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31368546 31668686 31748799 31608847 31418869 31028897
               30758897 30558873 30378829 30178748 30048668 29868582
               29918539 30178513 30658501 31148518 31368546 

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