Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 754

   Mesoscale Discussion 0754
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeast SD...far northwest IA...and
   far southwest MN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 213...

   Valid 172031Z - 172200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213 continues.

   SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds up to 80 mph is possible
   downstream of an ongoing bow moving east/northeast across southeast
   SD this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small but well-organized bow is ongoing across
   southeast South Dakota this afternoon. This storm has produced gusts
   near 80 mph over the past hour. The downstream environment remains
   favorable for a continuation of damaging wind swaths as convection
   moves along the gradient of moderate instability oriented across the
   region. Regional VWP data shows midlevel flow increasing to around
   40-50 kt with rich low-level moisture in place across far southeast
   SD and northwest IA. Radar presentation recently suggests a
   rear-inflow jet may be developing, which aligns with strengthening
   midlevel flow noted in regional VWP. This supports a continued risk
   for strong to intense damaging winds to near 80 mph over the next
   1-2 hours as the system continues east/northeast near 45-50 kt.

   ..Leitman.. 05/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43769797 44039626 43799540 43409534 43089557 42799662
               42719741 42669810 42899822 43399827 43769797 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN