Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 754

   Mesoscale Discussion 0754
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

   Areas affected...Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120014Z - 120215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and
   gusty winds this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Upper trough over the Four Corners region is shifting
   slowly east this evening. High-level diffluent flow has overspread
   the southern High Plains which appears to be aiding isolated
   strong/severe convection that has evolved along a weak instability
   axis across eastern NM. Moist, southeasterly boundary-layer flow and
   extensive cloud cover is limiting buoyancy near the TX/NM border
   where surface temperatures are only in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
   Latest radar data suggests slow-moving supercells will gradually
   shift east across the instability axis and should weaken as this
   activity begins to ingest lower-buoyancy inflow. Until then, large
   hail is likely the primary risk, though gusty winds may also be
   noted.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32310478 34670558 35520470 35010363 32330319 32310478