Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 752

   Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111858Z - 112100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may
   produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief
   tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across
   portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this
   has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few
   low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and
   around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for
   large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will
   encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said,
   storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west
   of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in
   the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level
   turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial
   extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense
   storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518
               34190554 34220613 34980722