Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 750

   Mesoscale Discussion 0750
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110012Z - 110115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust could accompany any ongoing
   storms over the next few hours, and a waterspout cannot be ruled out
   along coastal areas. The severe risk should remain isolated and a WW
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently traversing the
   Big Bend area of northern FL amid a warm and moist low-level
   airmass. Surface temperatures in the low 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints
   yield over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE on the cool side of a residual
   baroclinic boundary, where storm maturation could occur. Given the
   presence of 50+ kt effective bulk shear values (driven by elongated
   hodographs with modest low-level curvature), transient supercells
   may develop from the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms. Confidence in
   this scenario is modest at best. However, any storm that can mature
   in this environment could produce a damaging gust or two, and a
   waterspout could also form close to the coastline. The best chance
   for a gust or waterspout would be in the next few hours, before
   nocturnal cooling will support boundary layer stabilization and a
   decrease in thunderstorm potential. Since the severe threat should
   be sparse at best, a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30168460 30068314 29558184 28968114 28448124 28108182
               28008230 28138271 28688320 29358374 29718439 30168460