Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 746

   Mesoscale Discussion 0746
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0717 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...Northern and Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...230...

   Valid 101217Z - 101445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229, 230
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat are
   expected with an MCS, as it moves east-southeastward across
   southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat could
   impact parts of north-central Florida later this morning, and that
   area will continue to be monitored for additional watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
   MCS over southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The MCS will
   continue to move east-southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast over
   the next couple of hours. Ahead of the MCS, surface dewpoints are in
   the lower to mid 70s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the
   1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Jacksonville, FL WSR-88D
   VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots suggesting that the large-scale
   bowing line segment may remain organized. Wind damage will be
   possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments.
   The VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2
   which appears sufficient for an isolated tornado threat with
   rotating cells embedded in the line.

   ..Broyles.. 05/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31968198 31648274 30958334 30328364 29788354 29258329
               28698281 28438224 28398165 28538118 28838100 29348096
               30538125 31618116 31968198