Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 744

   Mesoscale Discussion 0744
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

   Areas affected...north-central into northeast Kansas and
   south-central into southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

   Valid 170315Z - 170515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for significant damaging gusts of 70-85 mph
   persist this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively compact but intense bow echo continues to
   produce significant severe gusts as it moves across northern KS and
   southern NE. Multiple gusts of 70-80+ mph have been measured over
   the past few hours, most recently 82 mph at Holdrege NE. Notably,
   these gusts have occurred even after cool northeast surface winds
   were seen at these stations. As such, at least the leading edge of
   the southward-moving outflow ahead of this bow does not appear to be
   mitigating severe potential. 

   With a 50 kt low-level jet ahead of this activity and ample
   instability, the damaging wind threat is expected to persist across
   WW 211, possibly reaching the MO River later this evening.

   ..Jewell.. 05/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39209971 39589911 39939906 40539931 40719901 41039696
               41089636 40879600 40559583 40039577 39699594 39439663
               39409701 39209971 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN