Mesoscale Discussion 0741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...northwest into north-central Kansas...southwest into south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...211... Valid 170001Z - 170200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 211 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of significant damaging winds appears to be developing across northwest Kansas. Gusts over 75-80 mph may occur across much of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this evening. Wind-driven hail is possible as well. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells producing large hail currently extends from southwest NE across central NE and into IA near the stationary front, with most of this activity moving very slowly. Large hail and very heavy rain remains likely with this activity. To the southwest, storms moving out of eastern CO and into northwest KS have recently shown signs of increased outflow, with radar indications of 60-70 kt inbound to KGLD radar. Additional supercells have formed near Goodland KS just ahead of the developing bow as well, resulting in a chaotic mixture of storm modes. Given the steep lapse rate environment, backed/easterly low-level winds to maximize storm-relative inflow, and increasing low-level jet this evening, a damaging MCS/bow echo is anticipated to develop out of the northwest KS activity. This potential system will move across northern KS and southern NE, with widespread severe winds likely. Significant gusts over 75 mph will be possible, with isolated stronger gusts. ..Jewell.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40190187 40520142 41009878 40989798 40659743 39539752 39259804 39099935 38980204 39740201 40190187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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