Mesoscale Discussion 0740 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 210... Valid 162346Z - 170115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 210 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms should continue to pose a threat for severe wind/hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes (over northern MO) over at least the next few hours. Hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter remains possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of 2+ inch hail continue to progress east-southeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary over southern IA into northern MO. Along the moist side of the boundary, 68 F surface dewpoints are contributing to over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and given a well-mixed boundary layer with minimal MLCINH, supercell structures should persist with a severe hail/wind threat. Low-level shear seems weak overall, which may be why tornado potential has not proven robust (with only one brief tornado reported in IA). Questions also remain regarding how much more 2+ inch diameter hail will occur given an increase in frequent storm interactions. Nonetheless, given ample instability in place, any supercell structures that can remain discrete and/or dominant will continue to pose a severe wind/hail risk, and 2+ inch diameter hail or a couple of tornadoes are possible. The best chance for significant severe hail and/or tornadoes will exist with supercells over northern MO, which are dominant, discrete, and are in closer proximity to the most unstable airmass. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41209519 41159391 41069341 40859296 40559257 40019233 39769265 39689309 39709353 40009414 40399473 40679508 40939530 41209519 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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