Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 731

   Mesoscale Discussion 0731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Areas affected...Central/Upper OH Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092006Z - 092130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail of 0.75 to 1.25 inches and locally damaging
   wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph will be possible with lower-topped
   scattered thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...To the southeast of a shortwave trough across the Upper
   Great Lakes/MS Valley, a belt of strong mid-level westerlies
   persists across most of the Lower to Central OH Valley. Despite this
   favorable upper flow regime, low-level winds remain weak and
   decidedly westerly, to the south of a pair of occluded surface lows
   over east-central IN and central OH. Meanwhile, destabilization has
   struggled with pervasive clouds/cool temperatures north of the
   occluded front. But an area of greater insolation is spreading east,
   to the west of the occluded lows over southern IN. Low-topped
   thunderstorms have developed within this post-frontal regime and
   should deepen somewhat over the next few hours as they spread east.
   Additional storms might form farther east ahead of the ill-defined
   occluded front/surface trough. Convection should struggle to greatly
   intensify, but given the presence of moderate to strong speed shear,
   a few more robust updrafts will be capable of producing marginal
   severe hail/wind threats into early evening.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 05/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   39568673 39968516 40098323 40198196 40148107 39918077
               39588077 39038106 38498189 38358265 38408407 38468525
               38578642 38628689 38988690 39568673