Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 731

   Mesoscale Discussion 0731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma into northwestern
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...206...

   Valid 160133Z - 160300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204, 206
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few more severe gusts may occur with ongoing storms
   before nocturnal cooling weakens thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms persists across western and
   central OK into northwestern TX. Despite the onset of nocturnal
   cooling, a few severe gusts have been reported in the past hour over
   northwestern TX. Given a residual mixed boundary layer and over 1000
   J/kg DCAPE, along with 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 00Z OUN
   observed sounding) evaporative cooling potential with the stronger
   storm cores may foster severe gust potential for at least a couple
   more hours. Some of the latest runs of the WoFS depict severe gusts
   continuing into central OK over the next few hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32800092 34259983 35309893 35729824 36059752 36029683
               35709661 34769776 33779845 33159912 32699965 32570007
               32560042 32800092 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH