Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN into southeast KY and far southwest VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4... Valid 070041Z - 070215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell has gradually matured over the last 1-2 hours to the northeast of Nashville, while other cells continue to develop and intensify near and just north of a surface boundary across southeast KY. Some increase in low-level flow/shear was noted earlier from the KOHX VWP, with short-term guidance suggesting that low-level flow will continue to increase this evening as ongoing convection spreads eastward into eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA. With nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected to be only gradual through the evening, MLCAPE will likely remain in the 500-1000 J/kg range in advance of the ongoing convection, with favorable deep-layer shear continuing to support supercell structures and potentially one or more semi-organized clusters. With only a slow increase in MLCINH expected, ongoing supercells may persist through much of the evening, with some potential tendency toward modest upscale growth with time. While low-level flow remains rather veered, effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will support some tornado threat with any persistent right-moving supercells. Otherwise, isolated large hail will be possible, especially with any left-moving supercells, while damaging wind could accompany any stronger supercells or organized clusters. ..Dean.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440 35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346 37278306 37188239
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