Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025
Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana and much of
north-central Ohio
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 060243Z - 060845Z
SUMMARY...Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain showers are
expected to increase in coverage/intensity through tonight. Periods
of moderate to locally heavy freezing rain are possible.
DISCUSSION...Evening upper air/surface analysis showed a broad warm
air advection regime was strengthening ahead of a low amplitude
upper trough and warm front over portions of the middle OH Valley.
North of the surface front, temperatures are near or just below
freezing with several areas of light to occasionally moderate
precipitation. Over the last couple of hours, area surface stations
have observed a mosaic of freezing drizzle, snow/ice pellets and
light freezing rain showers as the initial onset of stronger warm
air advection.
Thus far, intermittent freezing rain rates have been light,
generally below 0.02 in/hr. However, recent radar trends show an
increase in deeper convective cores (some with lightning) and
moderate stratiform developing over east-central IN and far western
OH. This intensification trend is expected to continue as
large-scale ascent from an approaching shortwave trough should
bolster low-level warm advection (850-700 mb temps of 4-6 C) through
the overnight hours. Continued large-scale ascent, in combination
with weak elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg of MUCAPE) will support more
widespread and heavier precipitation across portions of eastern IN
and north-central OH. Moderate to locally heavy freezing rain, with
rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr are possible, especially with the heavier
convective elements. Freezing rain concerns are highest primarily
across north-central OH where surface temperatures are below 30 F
and accretion will be most efficient. However, some icing is
possible over much of central/southern OH where surface temperatures
are more marginal. Given the expected increase in icing, travel
disruptions are possible.
..Lyons.. 02/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40278575 41468584 41658482 41498255 41498129 41048073
40068133 39558253 39648353 39758425 39878508 40278575
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