Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 635

   Mesoscale Discussion 0635
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of north FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021212Z - 021345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential is expected through the
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive band of thunderstorms is ongoing this
   morning from the northern Gulf into the FL Big Bend region. This
   area of storms is oriented roughly parallel to a cold front that
   will move southeastward through the day, as a midlevel shortwave
   trough moves quickly eastward across GA/SC and north FL. Storms
   affecting the Big Bend have been elevated thus far, though richer
   moisture and stronger buoyancy will spread northeastward across
   north FL, in association with a warm front and increasing low-level
   southwesterly flow. 

   Strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storm
   structures, including supercells and small bowing segments. If
   ongoing convection can become surface-based as it moves across north
   FL, an increase in the wind-damage and brief tornado threat will be
   possible. However, ongoing storms may outpace more favorable diurnal
   heating/destabilization, resulting in uncertainty regarding the
   magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. Watch issuance is
   possible if short-term trends support maintenance of organized
   convection through the morning across parts of north FL.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29848367 30048374 30188333 30348283 30558208 30608178
               29508134 29208155 28938204 28618280 29198342 29848367 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN