Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 631

   Mesoscale Discussion 0631
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010600Z - 010830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will
   continue overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
   south-central TX as of 06 UTC, with occasional elevated supercells
   noted. This activity continues to develop north of a nearly
   stationary surface front, and may persist through much of the
   overnight as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the
   region from northern Mexico. 

   While midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z CRP sounding and
   analyzed by the RAP) are not particularly steep, rich moisture above
   the frontal inversion is supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg where
   storms are ongoing. Strong mid/upper-level westerly flow is
   resulting in effective shear of 60+ kt, more than sufficient for
   organized convection. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will
   continue to be possible with the strongest storms overnight. A
   recent elevated storm with hail near Houston suggests that some
   severe potential may extend farther north than analyzed MUCAPE would
   indicate, though storms that track farther south (closer to the
   front) will have access to stronger buoyancy, and perhaps a
   localized very large hail threat.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29270104 29689823 29629692 29399618 29059603 28609608
               28299670 28009753 27769866 27729927 27680001 29270104 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN