Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 627

   Mesoscale Discussion 0627
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301549Z - 301745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are
   possible this morning. A watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across portions of the
   Concho Valley and Hill Country have exhibited episodic
   intensification with volumetric radar data indicating some mid-level
   rotation with the strongest storms. The 12z DRT sounding suggests
   that convection is likely rooted around 850 mb, with modestly steep
   mid-level lapse rates of around 7.5 degrees C/km contributing to
   MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, at least in the Edwards Plateau region.
   However, more recent RAP-based forecast soundings suggest that
   parcel buoyancy is considerably weaker (500-1000 J/kg) farther east
   within the immediate inflow region of the ongoing storms, which may
   tend to limit the overall intensity of that convective regime. 
   Nonetheless, the presence of 55-65 kt of effective bulk shear will
   be supportive of transient supercell structures, potentially capable
   of marginally severe hail. 

   Current thinking is that any severe weather threat is expected to
   remain too limited in areal coverage and magnitude to warrant the
   issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   ..Mead.. 04/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31160059 31510028 31579831 31639608 31219572 30589592
               30289822 30620024 31160059 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN