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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 627

Mesoscale Discussion 627
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0627
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwestern
   Missouri...Northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

   Valid 040602Z - 040800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to continue across parts
   of the lower to mid Missouri Valley tonight. A watch extension in
   area has been made for Cowley and Butler Counties in Kansas.
   However, the line is expected to become increasingly marginal over
   time, and new weather watch issuance is not expected to the east of
   WW 182.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Hastings shows a
   large-scale bowing line segment across southeast Nebraska and
   north-central Kansas. This line of storms is located near a warm
   front, which extends east-southeastward into northern Missouri. From
   near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in upper
   50s and lower 60s F, with MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
   In addition, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery
   over central Kansas. Large-scale ascent associated with the
   shortwave and the instability will provide support for the ongoing
   linear MCS for a few more hours. Isolated damaging gusts will be
   possible along the leading edge of the MCS. However, as MLCIN
   strengthens across the central Plains and instability decreases, the
   wind-damage threat is expected to become more marginal with time.

   ..Broyles.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39459466 39969433 40309425 40469436 40599469 40689618
               40659680 40279733 39659798 39389816 39129808 39039744
               39019585 39199505 39459466 

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