Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 619

   Mesoscale Discussion 0619
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

   Areas affected...north Texas into the ArkLaTex

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

   Valid 291837Z - 292030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail remains the predominant severe-weather threat
   in the near term. The hail threat is developing to the west of the
   current watch across portions of north Texas, and a local extension
   in area may be need.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1925z, mosaic radar data showed a broad zone of
   elevated thunderstorms extending from the Brownwood, TX vicinity
   into the ArkLaTex region. The most intense storms were located over
   Cass and Marion Counties in northeast TX, and Claiborne Parish in
   northwest LA with recent reports of 1.0-1.5" diameter hail with
   those storms. Modest low-level warm advection atop a stable,
   near-surface layer (per KFWD VWP) will continue to sustain the
   ongoing storms within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared
   environment. As such, the setup will remain favorable for embedded
   supercell structures capable of large hail up to 2.5" in diameter.
   The large-hail threat may materialize to the west of the current
   watch area, and a local extension may be required.

   Given the relatively closer proximity of the northwest LA storms to
   the surface front, the threat for severe wind gusts may increase as
   that activity continues southeast toward the boundary.

   ..Mead.. 04/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31999864 32819794 33529518 33329299 33139229 32489216
               31679217 31429321 31369388 31669530 31509825 31999864 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN