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Mesoscale Discussion 61 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Areas affected...FL Panhandle...southeast AL...southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311845Z - 312115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A low-topped convective band is moving eastward across parts of southeast AL and the FL Panhandle early this afternoon, with somewhat deeper convection noted near the immediate coast and just offshore. With only weak midlevel lapse rates in place and stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain generally displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, convection may tend to remain disorganized. However, modest diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 250-500 J/kg range downstream of ongoing convection, and effective shear (as depicted on the KEVX VWP) remains rather strong. Modest intensification remains possible with time this afternoon, and localized strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out in areas where relatively stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can continue. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30388674 31518579 31958527 31868470 31348444 30828465 30478489 30078512 29628522 29758540 30048578 30148622 30388674 |
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