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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 61

Published Date and Time: 2025-01-31 13:47:00












Mesoscale Discussion 61
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

   Areas affected...FL Panhandle...southeast AL...southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311845Z - 312115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A low-topped convective band is moving eastward across
   parts of southeast AL and the FL Panhandle early this afternoon,
   with somewhat deeper convection noted near the immediate coast and
   just offshore. With only weak midlevel lapse rates in place and
   stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain generally displaced
   north of the richer low-level moisture, convection may tend to
   remain disorganized. However, modest diurnal heating of a relatively
   moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 250-500
   J/kg range downstream of ongoing convection, and effective shear (as
   depicted on the KEVX VWP) remains rather strong. Modest
   intensification remains possible with time this afternoon, and
   localized strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out in areas where
   relatively stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates
   can continue.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 01/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30388674 31518579 31958527 31868470 31348444 30828465
               30478489 30078512 29628522 29758540 30048578 30148622
               30388674 


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