Mesoscale Discussion 0059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302117Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected through this evening. Isolated severe storms capable of gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push across eastern TX, and now into southwest AR and northwest LA. Ahead of this front, persistent southerly winds have allowed for marginal destabilization via advection with MUCAPE over 500 J/kg as far north as southeast AR. Heating remains limited due to extensive pre-frontal clouds, and scattered showers over the warm sector. Although low to midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep, lightning activity has increased over the last hour, suggesting the deepening moist boundary layer has breached the stable/capping layer. As such, increasing storm coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front through this evening. Shear profiles favor supercells and tornado potential, with effective SRH now over 300 m2/s2, and, deep-layer shear vectors oriented with substantial component across the cold front. With time, a few of the storms could attain supercell characteristics, with a conditional risk of a brief tornado and/or damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several hours. ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34719118 34539097 34109085 33569100 32609153 32019221 31729311 31979324 32259324 33309278 34289244 34759176 34719118
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 59

30
Jan