Mesoscale Discussion 0577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
Areas affected...parts of nw TX into the TX Pnhdl
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 272049Z - 272245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Probabilities for thunderstorm development appear low, but
may not be negligible late this afternoon into early evening, with
the environment conditionally supportive of supercells posing a risk
for large hail and tornadoes. If and when it becomes more certain
that storms will form, a severe weather watch will probably be
needed.
DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s
surface dew points is being maintained across the Lubbock through
Amarillo vicinities, beneath a deep warm elevated mixed-layer based
between 850-700 mb, just east of a dryline which may mix only slowly
northeastward/eastward into early evening. This appears to be
contributing to strong potential instability (3000+ J/kg), beneath
moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (including 40-70+ kt
in the 500-300 mb layer), and an environment conditionally
supportive of intense supercells.
Perhaps due to the warm/dry air at mid-levels, and weak large-scale
forcing for ascent, convection allowing guidance, in particular,
continues to indicate generally low potential for thunderstorm
initiation through early evening. However, at least attempts at
deepening convective development are evident to the west of the
dryline, and objective analysis indicates a possible secondary
maximum in dryline convergence developing near/north of Lubbock
toward areas west of Amarillo.
Of particular concern, if a sustained storm does develop during the
next couple of hours, there appears potential for rapid
intensification while propagating across the dryline. Toward
23-00Z, strengthening south-southeasterly low-level flow (in excess
of 30 kt around 850 mb) may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved
low-level hodographs increasingly supportive of potential for
tornadoes, in addition to large, potentially damaging hail.
..Kerr/Smith.. 04/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 35980219 34140054 33100020 32670120 33720184 33810231
34340246 34960261 35980219
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Source link