Mesoscale Discussion 0568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Areas affected...parts of cntrl/ern VA ...cntrl and srn MD...DE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261805Z - 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to gradually develop
through 3-5 PM EDT, with some accompanied by small hail and a few
strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorm development appears underway to the east of the Blue
Ridge, where low-level lapse rates are steepening most substantively
in response to insolation and mixing, in the wake of mid/high
cloudiness and light rain still overspreading northern Mid Atlantic
coastal areas. Through 19-21Z, the Rapid Refresh suggests that
continued boundary-layer warming may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE
as high as 1000 J/kg, within pre-frontal surface troughing across
central Virginia, northeastward toward the Delmarva.
Mid/upper-level lapse rates are likely to remain weak, as stronger
cooling aloft lags to the northwest of the region. But, with some
strengthening of westerly mid-level wind fields (to 30-35 kt around
500 mb), the environment may become conducive to small multi-cell
clusters, accompanied by a few potentially damaging surface gusts
which could approach severe limits.
..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501
38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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