Mesoscale Discussion 0550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into far southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170... Valid 250007Z - 250130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat for all hazards (hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two) continues across WW 170, particularly where supercells have developed and begun to move east-southeast across portions of northern Oklahoma. This threat will continue into the early evening hours. DISCUSSION...Supercells along the Kansas/Oklahoma border have taken on an east-southeast storm motion as mid and low-level mesocyclones have matured. These storms are capable of all hazards, having already produced 2.5" hail and a tornado. VAD wind profiles from KDDC and KVNX don't show an overall abundance of storm-relative helicity, but do indicate some curvature of the hodograph in the lowest levels. Additionally, current surface mesoanalysis indicates these storms exist within an area of locally enhanced surface vorticity. With the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet, in addition to the observed southeastward storm motion, SRH is expected to increase into the early evening and support a continued threat for all hazards, including tornadoes. The greatest short-term threat for continued tornado development will be with the southeastern-most storm, with unimpeded inflow and a favorable storm motion vector. The tornado threat will diminish into the evening hours as the nocturnal boundary layer stabilizes, but all supercells will be capable of 2.0+" hail and 65-85 MPH wind gusts. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37090027 37300009 37359983 37309940 37199886 37029838 36819810 36649811 36429820 36229839 36179865 36159905 36229940 36369964 36619994 36760014 36930027 37090027 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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