Mesoscale Discussion 0546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Southwest KS into northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170... Valid 242211Z - 242345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue into early evening, with a primary large hail, isolated strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed late this afternoon from far northwest OK into southwest KS, in the vicinity of a northwest to southeast oriented surface confluence zone. Deep-layer flow is rather modest, with effective shear of less than 30 kt per objective mesoanalyses, but the presence of ongoing supercells suggests that shear is locally greater near the surface boundary. The thermodynamic environment is favorable for hail production, with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near/above 1500 J/kg. Locally strong to severe gusts will also be possible, given the presence of a relatively well-mixed boundary layer. A tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained supercell that persists into the evening, when a modest increase in low-level shear/SRH is expected across the region. ..Dean.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36599843 36559941 37000009 37180100 37170109 37450136 37820130 38190113 38480077 38520041 38409970 37749853 37709848 37409830 36849829 36599843 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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