Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Areas affected...parts of cntrl and sern TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241933Z - 242130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to organize, with
signs of increasing potential to produce strong to severe gusts
while propagating southeastward toward the mid/upper Texas coastal
plain through 5-7 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, and southeasterly updraft
inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE
in excess of 2000 J/Kg), have maintained vigorous thunderstorm
development. Activity has undergone notable intensification and
increasing organization, and it appears that a meso-beta scale
cyclonic circulation is becoming better-defined near the Waco
vicinity, where a couple of 50+ kt surface gusts have recently been
observed.
Despite continued gradual warming around 700 mb, and some suggestion
that the larger-scale forcing for ascent may weaken, the
boundary-layer ahead of the storms remains potentially supportive of
further intensification of the convective system, southeastward
toward the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into early evening.
Deep-layer mean flow and shear remain generally modest, as does the
strength of the surface cold pool (as of 19Z observational data).
However, with further strengthening of the mesoscale vortex and
west-northwesterly rear inflow, there remains potential for a
continued increase in risk for strong to severe gusts during the
next few hours.
..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31209864 31229751 31609697 31689612 32209488 30849454
30079633 30289793 30759889 31209864
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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