Mesoscale Discussion 0542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Areas affected...parts of wrn TX and adjacent sern NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241837Z - 242100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms appears increasingly probable by 4-6 PM CDT, if not
earlier. This may include rapidly intensifying supercells capable
of producing large, potentially damaging hail, and localized severe
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...In the presence of light southerly to southwesterly
flow in the 850-700 mb layer, convergence within modest surface
troughing, along a sharpening dryline, remains generally weak.
However, initial attempts at deep convective development are ongoing
near the higher terrain around Fort Stockton, where daytime heating
is contributing to weakening low/mid-level inhibition. The
seasonably moist boundary layer is becoming characterized by CAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, with a significant fraction extending through
the mid and upper troposphere.
With additional insolation, various model output indicates that the
initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become
increasingly probable by/through the 21-23Z time frame, as far north
as a remnant outflow boundary to the southwest of the Lubbock
vicinity. Although the low to mid-level flow is weak, shear beneath
50-70 kt+ kt flow in the 300-250 mb layer, veering from
west-southwesterly to westerly in the wake of a mid/upper wave
progressing to the east of the Rockies, will be more than sufficient
for supercells. Some of these may become capable of producing large
hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.
..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33600244 32970193 32440174 32120173 30970188 30300195
29700212 28730270 28810362 29420378 30270335 31220309
32240331 33290276 33600244
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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