Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 541

   Mesoscale Discussion 0541
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 241833Z - 242100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected by 21-23z, capable of
   all hazard (tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind). A Tornado
   Watch will be be needed later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cu development has steadily increased across the
   Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. MLCIN eroding with
   daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid 70s. Supercell
   development is expected along the surface dryline and near Cap Rock
   between 21-23z. 

   With additional daytime heating, a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000
   J/kg will be in place across much of the TX/OK Panhandles. Shear
   profiles are sufficient, with deep layer shear around 30-35 kts.
   This will support robust scattered discrete supercell development,
   with potential for very large hail (some 2-3+") initially, given
   steep low to mid-lapse rates. A favorable more favorable corridor
   for tornadoes is possible from areas near Amarillo to the Cap Rock
   northeastward to the OK line. Within this region, backed surface
   flow will support larger low-level curvature of hodographs. This in
   combination with enhanced surface vorticity along the differential
   heating boundary and near the dryline may result in a tornado or two
   towards the late afternoon/evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be
   needed this afternoon to cover this potential.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34800260 35700265 36470279 36760277 36940260 37020165
               36970092 36930046 36900021 36790004 36150002 35830005
               35420001 35160000 34830002 34490003 33900013 33620048
               33530095 33450143 33440191 33480222 33520249 33580259
               33660259 34800260 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN