Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Areas affected...parts of cntrl into nern TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241529Z - 241800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development appears likely to
persist, with at least a gradual continuing upscale growth,
intensification and organization possible through 1-3 PM CDT. This
may be accompanied by the risk for severe hail, and increasing
potential for strong wind gusts later this afternoon. It is not
certain if or when a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends
are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent, largely driven by
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, is maintaining vigorous
thunderstorm development across parts of west central Texas,
near/south of Abilene toward the Stephenville area. This has been
focused above relatively cool convective outflow, near the eastern
periphery of a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated
mixed-layer air across the lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas
South Plains.
This plume is forecast to continue to slowly spread eastward across
the southern Great Plains through mid afternoon. At the same time,
however, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the south and east of
the convective outflow will continue to destabilize with daytime
heating, with CAPE likely to increase in excess of 1500 J/kg.
As the forcing for ascent spreads slowly eastward, there appears
potential for substantive intensification and upscale growth of
ongoing convective development as southeasterly low-level updraft
inflow continues to destabilize. However, the extent to which this
may be countered by warming mid-levels remains unclear, but this may
primarily just impact how soon this afternoon thunderstorm activity
undergoes more notable intensification.
Once this occurs, 20-25 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow is modestly
sheared, and probably to sufficient to contribute to a risk for
severe hail in the more discrete initial intensifying cells.
Gradually, a growing cluster may begin to organize, including the
evolution of an MCV and strengthening surface cold pool accompanied
by increasing potential for strong surface gusts.
..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32299977 32549760 33159702 33089574 31949496 31119588
30439784 31249946 31469994 32299977
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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