Mesoscale Discussion 0537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX South Plains into western north TX and southwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164... Valid 240330Z - 240530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe storms will continue late this evening and potentially into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Some upscale growth is underway with a storm cluster southeast of Amarillo, with evidence of accelerating and expanding outflow, and development of new storms to the northeast of the primary bowing segment. A 79 mph gust was recently measured near Silverton, TX with this cluster. This evolution is likely being aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, as observed in recent VWPs from KLBB. In the short term, supercells embedded within this cluster will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, while some increase in severe-wind potential could accompany the growing cold pool. Longer-term evolution of this cluster remains uncertain, as it encounters greater downstream CINH with time. However, if the cold pool can continue to grow and organize, and potentially encompass ongoing semi-discrete cells to the east of Lubbock, then some severe threat will spread into parts of western north TX and southwest OK late this evening into the early overnight. Depending on short-term observational trends, local watch extension and/or new watch issuance may need to be considered prior to the Midnight CDT expiration time of WW 164. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 32990038 33130095 33970242 34370252 35000100 35099924 33949875 33309872 32969929 32909996 32990038 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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