Mesoscale Discussion 0535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX South Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164... Valid 240045Z - 240215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado will continue through mid evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed early this evening to the southwest of Amarillo and northwest of Lubbock. The environment (as sampled in the 00Z AMA sounding) continues to be characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. Recent VWPs from KAMA also depict increasing flow in the lowest 2 km, associated with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This increase in low-level flow will help to maintain ongoing storms through mid evening, with some additional development possible within a modestly confluent regime across the TX/OK Panhandles, and also near any expanding outflow associated with ongoing storms. Large to very large hail (with 3+ inch hail recently reported near Dimmitt, TX) will continue to be a short-term threat, given the favorable thermodynamics and storm mode. Strengthening low-level shear/SRH, backed surface winds, and increasing boundary-layer moisture may also support some tornado threat with any supercells this evening that remain semi-discrete and not undercut by outflow. Strong to severe gusts will also be possible in the vicinity of ongoing storms and related outflow. Farther south, an earlier left-moving supercell has weakened to the east of Hobbs, NM, but storm development/intensification remains possible along the outflow associated with this storm cluster through mid evening as it moves north-northeastward. ..Dean.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36090043 34430086 33120156 33000279 33060296 33670290 34190291 35780232 36700137 36660076 36090043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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