Mesoscale Discussion 0531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 232202Z - 232330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Multiple storms, may continue to support occasional
instances of severe wind or hail this evening. Since the severe
threat will likely remain isolated, a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and transient supercells are in
progress across northeastern Kansas, and are poised to keep tracking
southeast amid an unstable airmass, characterized by over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Shear is weak, with 21Z mesoanalysis depicting less than 25
kts of effective bulk shear, and TWX/EAX VADS showing short
hodographs with little low-level structure. KTWX regional radar and
MRMS mosaic radar imagery suggests that the strongest storms are
upscale growing into a small MCS. If this morphology continues, a
brief uptick in strong to potentially severe gusts will ensue.
Otherwise, severe hail may accompany the stronger preceding cells
that manage to intensify.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39209645 39579607 39849527 39609416 39159372 38389394
37949429 37869483 37899553 38089611 38269629 39209645
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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