Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 529

   Mesoscale Discussion 0529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into central
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232143Z - 232315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and gusts may accompany multicells
   and left-splitting supercells into the evening hours. A WW issuance
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells, with a history of producing
   marginally severe hail/gusts, continues to propagate northward into
   a buoyant airmass. Deep-layer tropospheric lapse rates exceed 8 C/km
   amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Regional
   VADs ahead of the ongoing storms depict relatively straight
   hodographs, suggesting that multicells and perhaps splitting
   supercells will remain the dominant mode of convection, with severe
   wind/hail the main threats. Given weak forcing for ascent, storm
   maintenance/rejuvenation will rely on cold pool propagation.
   Nonetheless, several more hours of adequate surface heating should
   allow for the propagation of stronger cells into at least central
   IA. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40809674 41799627 42289554 42719395 42629281 42039261
               41269280 40729353 40419465 40369551 40439626 40809674 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN