Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Areas affected...parts of wrn KS...sern CO...OK Pnhdl
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 231939Z - 232215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly
probable through the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, including the potential
for supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes in a
focused area near/southeast of Goodland.
DISCUSSION...With daytime heating and mixing, the boundary-layer
within surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle
vicinity through western Kansas continues to deepen and destabilize.
It now appears generally characterized by surface temperature/dew
point spreads in excess of 30 F, with CAPE increasing to 1500-2000+
J/kg.
Inhibition is in the process of weakening, and deepening high-based
convection is now evident within the axis of stronger
destabilization. With further insolation, the initiation of
thunderstorms appears increasingly probable, some of which may
eventually be accompanied by small hail and localized strong
downbursts.
Of greater concern is the potential for convective development where
better low-level moisture, on the western periphery of outflow
associated with persistent ongoing convection across central Kansas,
intersects the axis of stronger heating. This appears focused near
a weak developing cyclonic circulation southeast of Goodland, where
shear associated with clockwise turning of low-level wind fields
with height, beneath a belt of 30 kt westerly flow around 500 mb, is
likely sufficient for supercells. This is where potential for large
hail appears maximized, and near-surface CAPE/upward vertical
accelerations may promote the potential for tornadoes.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 39490179 39490081 38790011 38070052 36930225 37220375
38350211 38920164 39490179
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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