Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Areas affected...parts of cntrl and eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231654Z - 231930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by
increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging
surface gusts, mainly toward 2-4 PM CDT and later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Above a modestly moist boundary layer (characterized by
mid/upper 50s F surface dew points), within broad surface troughing
across the central and southern Great Plains, forecast soundings
suggest that a subsidence induced warm/dry layer between 850-700 mb
is still contributing to substantial inhibition across central into
eastern Kansas. However, thunderstorm activity has recently
initiated in a small cluster north of Hutchinson.
Even if this activity is rooted close to the surface, and being
forced through the capping layer, CAPE within/above the mixed-phase
layer still appears modest, with weak shear beneath 10-15+ kt
westerly 500 mb flow also likely to limit potential for large hail
growth. Latest objective analysis, though, does indicate a corridor
of increasing boundary-layer destabilization, roughly along
Interstate 70 near/east of Concordia, in response to continuing
insolation and some further moistening aided by weak low-level
convergence.
As this boundary-layer destabilization progresses (and
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates become rather steep), weakening
mid-level inhibition may allow for intensifying thunderstorm
activity with increasing potential to produce severe hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39709815 39789622 39619499 38659484 38479620 37969696
38129791 38999807 39709815
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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