Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 501

   Mesoscale Discussion 0501
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...ArkLaTex into western/central Arkansas and
   southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

   Valid 201717Z - 201915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat tornadoes, some potentially strong, and swaths
   of damaging winds will increase through the afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low currently deepening in eastern Oklahoma
   should continue to track northeast along with a potent, compact
   shortwave trough in the southern Plains. Morning satellite imagery
   shows expansive cloud cover in parts of eastern Oklahoma with
   greater coverage in central/northern Missouri. However, there are
   areas of clearing in central/northern Arkansas and
   southwest/south-central Missouri. Visible satellite continues to
   show a general breakdown of boundary layer rolls into cumulus
   clouds. This matches with forecast soundings suggesting diminishing
   MLCIN in the areas of greatest heating.

   As storm continue to develop/intensity along the cold front and near
   the surface low, the severe threat will gradually increase into the
   afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields should continue to
   strengthen, particularly in northern Arkansas into Missouri, as the
   surface low deepens. This will support a threat for tornadoes--some
   of which could be strong. A small supercell near an effective warm
   front in Camden County, MO will pose the greatest short-term tornado
   threat if it can remain anchored to the boundary. While the shear
   vector orientation to the cold front will support some discrete
   elements, forcing from the shortwave trough within a weakly capped
   airmass will also tend to promote several linear segments capable of
   swaths of wind damage.

   ..Wendt/Goss.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   32849491 35629534 36589520 38239351 38709276 38899215
               38729176 38309148 37249186 34599241 32849349 32429414
               32849491 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN