Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 496

   Mesoscale Discussion 0496
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast/Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 200339Z - 200445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon across portions
   of northeast and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...Intense low-level warm advection has developed across
   eastern OK into northwest AR, per latest VAD profiles from INX/SRX.
   0-3km SRH is impressive across this region as the LLJ is
   strengthening into this area. Over the last few hours, an elongated
   MCS has matured across ww159, and several long-lived supercells,
   with tornadoes at times, are embedded along a corridor from Parker
   County TX to Hughes County OK. Boundary-layer air mass is gradually
   recovering across this region with lower 60s surface dew points
   north of I40 into northwest AR. Severe threat is expected to
   increase across this area over the next several hours as the
   upstream MCS spreads into this region, but isolated supercells are
   also likely within the warm-advection zone. New Tornado Watch is
   warranted across this area.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35459643 36139555 36409433 36009384 34749487 35459643 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN