Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 495

   Mesoscale Discussion 0495
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1034 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

   Valid 200334Z - 200500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across northern portions of
   Tornado Watch 149 in southeastern OK.

   DISCUSSION...A tornadic QLCS has materialized across portions of
   southeast OK, with a tornadic debris signature recently observed
   over Ada, OK. This parent circulation (possibly an embedded
   supercell mesocyclone), as well as multiple other pronounced
   mesovortices, should continue to track eastward across southeast OK
   over the next few hours. These storms continue to be preceded by a
   moist boundary layer and strong low-level shear (given the presence
   of a southerly 40+ kt low-level jet per 02Z mesoanalysis data). As
   such, tornado potential will continue with this QLCS, as also
   suggested by some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast output. A strong
   tornado remains possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33859716 34609680 35049645 35219585 35089548 34689539
               34199552 33919586 33829620 33769678 33859716 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN