US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 494

Published Date and Time: 2025-04-19 23:15:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 0494
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of north Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

   Valid 200310Z - 200415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

   SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across southern
   parts of Tornado Watch 149. A brief, short-term uptick in tornado
   potential is possible with supercells merging with a baroclinic
   boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Three supercells are currently tracking northeastward
   across portions of north TX, west of the DFW metroplex. The Parker
   County supercell has a history of tornadoes, and tornado potential
   will continue with both of these storms over the next few hours. In
   the next 1-2 hours, these storms are poised to merge with a
   baroclinic boundary, which has encouraged other storms to merge into
   an MCS. With the boundary merger, a localized, brief uptick in
   tornado potential may be realized, and a strong tornado may occur.
   Thereafter, the storms will merge into the MCS and either become
   embedded supercells, or LEWPs/bowing segments, with some tornado
   threat persisting, though severe gusts will also be a concern.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32359842 32989820 33399791 33709757 33639716 33299709
               32789737 32519757 32289805 32359842 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN



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