Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200035Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary. As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant, likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654 33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Source link