Mesoscale Discussion 0488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 200011Z - 200145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 and Tornado Watch 148. Severe hail appears to be the main threat in the short term, though a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in Tornado Watch 148. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are training along a baroclinic boundary across southwestern into central TX, with a history of producing severe hail up to 2 inches in diameter, as also shown by recent MRMS mosaic radar data. Ample buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) amid strong deep-layer shear should continue to support severe hail with these storms over the next few hours. Many of these storms appear to be undercut by a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, which has succeeded at impeding adequate surface-based inflow for better tornado potential so far. However, with time, these storms are expected to pivot eastward into the warm-sector, where a preceding southerly low-level jet continues to intensify. Regional VADs across central into northern TX also show low-level hodographs becoming larger and more curved. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to cross the baroclinic boundary into the warm sector. Later this evening, storms may eventually merge into one or more MCSs, perhaps progressing eastward as LEWPs with a damaging gust/isolated tornado threat, as suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30990255 32689985 33519857 33569805 33279791 32459807 31569836 31159903 30940066 30990255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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