Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 483

   Mesoscale Discussion 0483
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of western and central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191858Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail (2.00-3.50
   in) and 65-80 MPH winds likely over portions of western and central
   Texas through this evening

   DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite and radar imagery show
   developing thunderstorms along a mostly stationary boundary draped
   SW-NE across western and central Texas. With steep lapse rates and
   80kts of effective bulk shear, supercells capable of large hail
   (2.00-3.50 inch) and damaging winds (65-80 MPH) will develop along
   the boundary and move north and eastward through the afternoon and
   evening. Lack of low-level shear will keep the tornado threat low
   for the moment, though cannot be ruled out as shear increases into
   the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will be likely within the
   next hour.

   ..Halbert/Mosier.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30200249 30430266 30580273 30850263 31620231 32400172
               32850124 33370006 33659940 33789850 33669804 33469756
               33269735 32879727 32459736 31879770 31579806 31249838
               30959867 30519918 30209975 29950033 29800082 29770127
               29850190 29990219 30200249 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN