Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 449

   Mesoscale Discussion 0449
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0430 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

   Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky...far southern
   Ohio...and West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

   Valid 142130Z - 142300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Multiple supercells capable of large hail and damaging
   wind gusts will persist this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed across southern
   Ohio with multiple large hail reports received thus far. The
   strongest of these cells is a lead supercell approaching Charleston,
   WV as of 2130 UTC. This supercell has a history of 2 inch hail and
   latest MRMS data suggests 2+ inch hail (perhaps the size of
   baseballs) remains possible. The environment downstream of this
   supercell remains favorable with 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 45 to 50
   knots of shear and visible satellite showing an expansive agitated
   cumulus field. Therefore, expect this 2+ inch hail threat to persist
   for at least a few more hours across West Virginia.

   Thunderstorm activity has been limited south of the Ohio River thus
   far, and visible satellite imagery does not appear to indicate
   additional thunderstorms are imminent. However, the environment
   remains uncapped and as mid-level temperatures continue to cool,
   some thunderstorms will be possible along the front this evening.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38908503 39378376 39618195 39728086 39457988 38847949
               37627973 37048123 36998290 36878407 37048569 37998560
               38908503 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN